SINGAPORE, 9 May 2023: India’s strong growth potential, as domestic travel overtakes the pre-pandemic levels, and international is not far behind, according to the latest Sabre data.
Following major aviation developments in the country announced recently, Sabre sifted through data to examine the potential of India’s travel growth over the coming years.
Key findings
• Significant investments in the tourism industry are expected to increase and support airline capacity requirements for domestic and international travel.
• As of March 2023, bookings are back to 100% of pre-pandemic levels for domestic trips and nearly 100% of pre-pandemic levels for international trips, with domestic travel increasing in popularity and domestic capacity having already exceeded pre-pandemic levels.
• Indian carriers are expected to play a significant role in international travel.
• Passenger numbers are increasing despite significantly higher international fares.
• The growing middle-class segment in India is expected to gain access to travel as travel becomes more affordable; the middle-class segment is expected to double from one in three to two in three Indians by 2047.
Significant investments in the Indian tourism industry are expected to increase and support capacity requirements for domestic and international travel.
As of March 2023, bookings are back to 100% of pre-pandemic levels for domestic trips and are at nearly 100% of pre-pandemic levels for international trips, with domestic capacity having already exceeded pre-pandemic levels.
Sabre’s booking data shows that in January 2023, there were 11 million domestic trips versus 11.2 million in January 2019, showing a travel recovery of 98.8%. In February, domestic travel measured at 99.3% and eventually exceeded pre-pandemic levels in March at 107.4%. Domestic capacity has already exceeded 2019 levels since the beginning of this year, signifying that there is potential for domestic travel to grow significantly.
The strong growth for domestic travel and capacity could be attributed to more Indians turning towards domestic travel during the pandemic when they couldn’t travel further afield and ongoing improvements in connectivity due to government investments.
In addition, India has recently seen a rise in low-cost carriers (LCCs), with these carriers recording growth in domestic travel. In Q1 of 2019, 23.2 million travellers flew on LCCs for domestic routes. The number increased to 26.5 million within the same period in 2023, an increase of 14%.
There were 5.7 million trips for international travel in January 2023 versus 6 million in January 2019, showing a recovery rate of 95%. The recovery rate increased to 97.5% in February 2023 and is now at 99.5% in March 2023. Capacity for international trips has also been planned to exceed 100% of 2019 levels by Q2.
International fares increased post-pandemic
An impressive travel resumption has been achieved even though average international fares are 41.3% more expensive as of February 2023 than pre-pandemic prices. This exemplifies the “revenge travel” phenomenon resulting from the long lockdowns, plus the fact that capacity could not catch up with the pent-up demand.
Domestic fares have also increased, 24.5% more than pre-pandemic prices as of February 2023. Fare prices are expected to stabilise as capacity grows to meet and potentially exceed demand, coupled with various tourism investments to make travel affordable for the growing middle-class segment in India.
