LONDON, 31 October 2024: The aviation industry is entering its next growth cycle, with the Cirium Fleet Forecast 2024 predicting continued demand for new aircraft as airlines seek newer aircraft and expand their fleets.
Cirium, a trusted source of aviation analytics data, has published its 2024 Fleet Forecast Report for 12 consecutive years. The 2024 report predicts that as airlines continue to invest in newer and more sustainable aircraft, the aviation market is expected to deliver 45,900 new passenger aircraft, freighters and turboprop aircraft with a total value of US$3.3 trillion in the next 20 years.
The 2024 Cirium Fleet Forecast comes as the aviation industry faces delays in aircraft deliveries due to supply chain issues. The report predicts that, compared to 2023, aircraft deliveries will decrease by 5% from 2024 to 2027 due to supply chain shortages.
According to the 2024 forecast report data, as of the fourth quarter of 2024, 26,100 aircraft will be in service, a 5% increase from January 2020, when the epidemic broke out. This trend shows that the aviation industry is experiencing strong growth and recovery.
Single-aisle aircraft deliveries and operations increased by 13%, driving growth and recovery in the aviation industry. The number of twin-aisle aircraft is 3% below pre-pandemic levels. The number of regional aircraft in service is also 8% lower than before the pandemic, with turboprop aircraft experiencing the largest drop, up to 13%.
The Cirium Fleet Forecast 2024 analysis shows that 45,900 new aircraft will be delivered between 2024 and 2043, of which approximately 98% will be passenger aircraft. Available seat kilometres (ASK) are expected to grow at an annual rate of 4.4% compared to 2023.
Airbus and Boeing will continue to dominate commercial aircraft manufacturing, expected to deliver 84% of aircraft, a proportion expected to rise to 90% by 2043, while COMAC is expected to capture 6% of demand. Other OEMs such as ATR and Embraer will also have approximately $180 billion in demand over the next 20 years, including possible new projects.
Asia will continue to be the leading region for aircraft growth, accounting for 45% of total aircraft deliveries over the next 20 years, with China accounting for approximately 20%, almost equal to North America’s total.
The rise of commercial aviation in India also drives growth in aircraft deliveries. The number of passenger aircraft in India is expected to increase from 720 at the end of 2023 to more than 3,800 over the next 20 years. This report is the first to analyse the Indian aviation market separately.
“The aviation industry is entering its next growth cycle, and the Cirium Fleet Forecast 2024 shows that the demand for new aircraft will continue to grow as airlines seek newer aircraft and expand their fleets,” said Cirium Ascend Consultancy, global head Rob Morris.
“However, supply chain issues and other manufacturing issues will continue to delay OEM deliveries, leading to uncertainty in delivery times for many airlines, and we have factored this into our 2024 forecasts.”
With markets such as India growing significantly, competition among manufacturers is set to intensify over the next 20 years, and airlines will continue to invest in their fleets.
The 2024 forecast also notes sustainability challenges and net zero emissions, with fleet expansion needing to be balanced with new aircraft efficiencies to reduce unit emissions.
In addition, according to the 2024 forecast report, due to the slowdown in long-distance passenger traffic after the epidemic, single-aisle aircraft are expected to lead the growth of the aviation industry in the next 20 years, with an estimated annual growth rate of 3.9%, exceeding the 3.3% of double-aisle aircraft. Regional aircraft are expected to grow moderately at a rate of 0.8% per year.
Click here to download the full summary of the 2024 Cirium Fleet Forecast.
(Source: BusinessWire)
