MADRID, 4 April 2022: After the unprecedented drop in 2020
and 2021, international tourism is beginning to show signs of a gradual
recovery in 2022 but the Ukraine crisis could hamper progress.
On the positive side, UNWTO reports that as of 24 March, 12 destinations
had no Covid-19 related restrictions in place, and more destinations are easing
or lifting travel restrictions, which contributes to unleashing pent-up demand.
However, UNWTO warns that the war in Ukraine poses new
challenges to the global economic environment and risks hampering the return of
confidence in global travel. The US and the Asian source markets, which have
started to open up, could be particularly impacted, especially regarding travel
to Europe, as these markets are historically more risk-averse.
The shutdown of Ukrainian and Russian airspace, as well as
the ban on Russian carriers by many European countries, is affecting
intra-European travel.
It is also causing detours in long-haul flights between
Europe and East Asia, which translates into longer flights and higher costs.
Russia and Ukraine accounted for a combined 3% of global spending on
international tourism in 2020, and at least USD14 billion in global tourism
receipts could be lost if the conflict is prolonged.
The importance of both markets is significant for
neighbouring countries, but also for European sun and sea destinations. The
Russian market also gained significant weight during the pandemic for long haul
destinations such as Maldives, Seychelles or Sri Lanka.
As destinations, Russia and Ukraine accounted for 4% of all
international arrivals in Europe but only 1% of Europe’s international tourism
receipts in 2020.
Economic uncertainty and pressures
Even though it is too early to assess the impact, air travel
searches and bookings across various channels showed a slowdown the week after
the invasion but started to rebound in early March.
It is certain that the offensive will add further pressure
to already challenging economic conditions, undermining consumer confidence and
raising investment uncertainty.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
(OECD) estimates that global economic growth could be more than 1% lower this
year than projected. In contrast, inflation, already high at the start of the
year, could be at least 2.5% higher.
The recent spike in oil prices (Brent reached its highest
levels in 10 years), and rising inflation are making accommodation and
transport services more expensive, adding extra pressure on businesses,
consumer purchasing power and savings, UNWTO notes.
This forecast is in line with the analysis of the potential
consequences of the conflict on global economic recovery and growth by the
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). The agency also
downgraded its projection for world economic growth in 2022 from 3.6% to 2.6%
and warned that developing countries would be most vulnerable to the slowdown.
Based on the latest available data from the UNWTO, global
international tourist arrivals more than doubled (+130%) in January 2022
compared to 2021 – the 18 million more visitors recorded worldwide in the first
month of this year equals the total increase for the whole of 2021.
While these figures confirmed the positive trend already
underway last year, the pace of recovery in January was impacted by the
emergence of the Omicron variant and the re-introduction of travel restrictions
in several destinations. Following the 71% decline of 2021, international
arrivals in January 2022 remained 67% below pre-pandemic levels.
Europe and the Americas perform strongest
All regions enjoyed a significant rebound in January 2022,
though from low levels recorded at the start of 2021. Europe (+199%) and the
Americas (+97%) continued to post the most robust results, with international
arrivals still around half pre-pandemic levels (-53% and -52%, respectively).
The Middle East (+89%) and Africa (+51%) also saw growth in
January 2022 over 2021, but these regions saw a drop of 63% and 69%,
respectively, compared to 2019. While Asia and the Pacific recorded a 44%
year-on-year increase, several destinations remained closed to non-essential
travel resulting in the largest decrease in international arrivals over 2019
(-93%).
By subregions, Western Europe registered four times more
arrivals in January 2022 than in 2021, the highest of all regions, but 58% less
than in 2019. Additionally, the Caribbean (-38%) and Southern and Mediterranean
Europe (-41%) have shown the fastest rates of recovery towards 2019 levels.
Indeed, several islands in the Caribbean and Asia and the
Pacific, together with some small European and Central American destinations,
recorded the best results compared to 2019: Seychelles (-27%), Bulgaria and
Curaçao (both -20%), El Salvador (-19%), Serbia and Maldives (both -13%),
Dominican Republic (-11%), Albania (-7%) and Andorra (-3%). Bosnia and
Herzegovina (+2%) even exceeded pre-pandemic levels. Among major destinations,
Turkey and Mexico saw declines of 16% and 24%, respectively, as compared to
2019.